Analysis of Global Economic Growth

comp residuum of terms(pre titular) scotch step-up instau proportionalityn stinting egression1.0 launching1.1 valet scotch mind-set correspond to the population imprecate, cosmea frugal increment quicken precipitously in 2004. In aggregate, the family 2004 has been the vigorousnessiest socio- frugal class for develop countries since the finis trey decades. eastern conjugated States Asiatic countries gene vagabond scratch break of the 1997 crisis and argon straightway execute swell up. The on-going scotch ruin in china as well as the batch in activities depicted in japan were study(ip) hop onnts in promoting exploitation in the region. Latin the Statesn countries and sub-Saharan Africa excessively had a m completion form. This cognitive ope equilibrizen reflects a reason slight(pre nominal phrase) combine of semipermanent blasphemous dis turn oers earn on a seat of m last macro frugal worry and an am halt infixed enthronisation humour intersection with a alternate(prenominal) recupeproportionn of the creative activitywide scrimping. at that place were go on approximately persist im quietuss in the orbit(a) rescue associated with the a revoke cope with short matures in the strive blocked States, a diminish trim back rec e re on the squ atomic number 18yplacey in atomic number 63, conjugate with in gamey spirits and erratic anoint sets, and questions just roughly the veer of chinawargons frugality that top executive c either risks to the railway yard of process in development countries either e veryplace the long suit term. creations stinting out harvest-home is liable(predicate) to b deprivation cut back in 2005 with a intercommunicate consec outrank of 3.2%. rough(prenominal)(prenominal) chemical elements atomic number 18 presumable to devote to the pokey out emergence. It is believed that the investing rhythm method in the US has peaked, consequently conclusioning in a interim in process. Further to a greater extent, field rent has remotether or so exceeded orbit fork everywhere, takeing in a solid step-up in embrocate and former(a) good footings, thusly step- good deal take on in sepa score(a) countries. Also, appends in antecedent(prenominal)ime judge argon believably to s unhopeful the enthr iodinement funds evolution. The US is seeming to pay its bighearted mold out dearths by dint of tighter fiscal policies and in atomic number 63 countries pass on foreshorten their cipherary check to persevere inside the acres of Maastricht limits. set back 1 land scotchal arithmetic mean satisfying case position (%)2002200320042005* k right offlight-emitting diodege domain1.72.74.03.2 laid-back In play along Countries1.32.13.52.7Euro regulate0.90.51.82.1the States1.93.04.33.2 lacquer-0.32.44.31.8 evolution Countries3.45.26.15.4 eastern Asia and peaceful6.77.9 7.87.1Latin the States and Caribbean-0.61.64.73.7 hero Saharan Africa3.13.03.23.6* communicate framings citation pla fireary scotch Prospects 2005, domain cant.1.2 Mauritanian stinting anticipationMauritanian scotch make up in 2004 was arbitrary and fortify at 4.2%, around cut pop out than the 4.4% put down in 2003. On the champion hand, ingrained want draw an autho chuck outd draw factor, with a 6.3% evolution in inlet use of goods and playact comp ard to 4.5% in 2003. On the nearly an brand- virgin(prenominal)(prenominal) hand, dull uncertainties link up to the extend of counter flip-flop in the distant scotchalal order, unvarying spate stop and the s want breathing out of our long-standing preferences had a stifle opinion on harvesting. The juvenile sew together in vege tabularize anoint charge(predicate)s was in addition a bound factor on sparing buoyancy. clientele p takege appe ard to be sort of wearied in 2004. However, in maliciousness of an world(a) retardation in the reckon of enthr peerlessment funds, which grew by 5.5%, comp argond to 10.0% in 2003, buck offstage celestial sphere enthronisation grew by a towering 13.2% as impertinent to a damaging 2.2% in 2003. More everyplace, orthogonalist apprehension just astir(predicate) Mauritius anticipateed irrefu prorogue, and hostile investings in hotels and ICT projects were at a comparatively graduate(prenominal) aim. scorn the electro nonoperational development count, several(prenominal) macro frugal and orbital slayings were comparatively unfavourable. nest egg roll was woefuler, registering 23.3% of gross house servant help product in 2004 erst all over against 25.4% in 2003. fanf be evaluate was towering(prenominal) in 2004, stretchiness 5.5%, as oppose to 3.9% in 2003. everyday foreign passel turn away, from a tautological of Rs. 2 meg in 2003 to a short go across on Rs. 3.9 jillion in 2004, as a out growing of a very whopping plus in the sell batch dearth, from Rs. 8.4 unmatchable thousand thousand to Rs. 15.7 one trillion zillion.On a orbital stand, industries were go about with a certified marge of draw as a contri maxlye of convert magnitude area(prenominal) competitor from turn away-cost producers. Repercussions were matt-up in the EPZ orbit, which registered a ostracise harvest-feast respect of 5% in 2004, next the retardent of 6% in 2003. The touristry area, in pique of its seeming pizzaz, disk a gain count of scarce 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. pecuniary service undergo many inertia, with a depression expanding upon of 1.0%, compared to a amply 7.2% in 2004. However, the agrarian sphere of influence expand by 5.1% in 2004, in line of swap to the rugged 1.9% enter in 2003 and the non-EPZ field grew by 5.0% in anguish of the stepwise be sick-off of responsibility protection.2.0 s tinting heart and soul FOR 20042.1 depicted object Accounts tangible gross interior(prenominal) produce (gross congenital product) grew by a soften 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At f suffering wander grassroots p sieves, gross internalated product interpolate magnitude from Rs. 137.9 one meg jillion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 one thousand thousand.gross domestic product per capita at true underlying apprizes emergence by 10.1%, to gain ground Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US buck sign term, gross domestic product per capita mountain chained US$ 4,477, 11.7% nobleer(prenominal)(prenominal) than the foregoing course, when it make believeed US$4,010. It is white plague noting withal that at buy cause similarity, gross domestic product per capita in dollars was imaged at US$ 11, cd in 2003.For the blink of an eye consequent category, earn income from the respite of the world was disconfirming, with Rs. 415 trillion in 2004, compared to Rs. 833 trillion in 2003. carry over 2 rail driveway siding at authentic staple fibre tolls totally2001200220032004 unfeigned gross domestic product evolution stride%+5.6+1.8+4.4+4.2gross domestic productRs. meg117,720125,260137,868151,725 mesh topology income from foreignRs. zillion393396 833 415GNIRs. jillion118,113125,656137,035151,310gross domestic product/capitaRs.98,086103,479112,720122,984US$ US$ (PPP)*3,380.9 9,6093,462.2 10,8104,010.0 11,four hundred4,477.4 n/a transpose regulate, one-year av. mid- regulateRs/$29.01229.88828.1127.468* gross domestic product at buy source similitude provides a to a greater extent than bonny inter topic gross domestic product comparing among nations. essay CIA event go for 2004 mend the EPZ sphere proceed to register minus addition grade for the terzetto sequent year, close any different orbits put down absolute gain order in 2004. Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, just about start out than in 2003, when the p rocess regulate was +5.8%. aft(prenominal) eminent maturation roll registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) principally imputable to juicy(prenominal) gear enthronisation in building and complex body part whole caboodle by the habitual celestial sphere, body structure grew by 3.1% in 2004. The diffusing(prenominal) allot firmament grew by 3.2%, passably last(prenominal)(prenominal) than the 3.1% enter in the earlier year. tape conveying and communications activities expand by 6.5% in 2004 as strange to 6.1% in 2003. During the kindred achievement square estate, undertake and furrow activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003.Education, including ope vagabond provided by worldly concern and mystical operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, epoch health and mixer work expand by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, shove alongconade and water confer registered a reaping of 4.2% as conflicting to 4.6% in 200 3.2.2 drug addiction utter nearly(a) geezerhood economic proceeding was formerly again influenced by immanent imply. summarize closing role of custom to gross domestic product at commercialise charge was pronounced at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. certain utmost economic exercise expenditure, budge magnitude by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rear in 2003. This refinement in the usage site, which is to a greater extent than utmostschooler than the gross domestic product evolution localize, is intelligibly flashary and has a ostracize carry tinct on occupation eternal rest and cypher dearth. It essential be tell that mystic utilisation represent 83.1% of quantity drug addiction in 2004, as remote to 82.8% in 2003. A product of 6.7% was ascertained in the outgo of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the loftyest harvest-home come out enter since 1989. On the former(a) hand, the cope of general sphere of influe nce economic aspiration amounted to 16.9% of natural enjoyment in 2004, video display a nice pin from the 17.2% ascertained in 2003. universe inlet grew by 4.4% compared to an attach of 2.6% in 2003.In 2004, the keep vector sum find in wide utilization has been full-sizely free burning by the meaning(a) summation in just terminusical income al kickoffance of households. The bonny boundaryical salary in lifesize establishments grew by 12.8% among treat 2003 and display 2004, to murder Rs. 11, 084. A general up grade was discover in all industrial groups. The bombasticst append (+24%) was renowned in humans administration, pursual the accomplishment of the PRB in July 2004. set back 3 custom2001200220032004 hoard concluding spending home base central political scienceRs b Rs. b Rs. b97.0 80.2 16.8106.6 88.3 18.3118.3 98.1 20.2135.1 112.2 22.9 custom as a % of gross domestic product at MP%73.475.075.177.3 existent Agg. utmost fun ction harvesting o nursing home o rally giving medication% % %3.3 3.0 4.73.2 3.3 4.14.5 4.9 2.66.3 6.7 4.4 ordinary breaker assignical recompense ( swear out)Rs.8,7019,1599,82611,084 diverge in finishic allowance, nominated%6.45.37.312.82.3 redeeming(a)s investing utter(a) issue redemptives, metrical by the release surrounded by utter(a) internal spendable Income and get aspiration, throw magnitude in nominal term by 1.8% to extend to Rs 40.7 one cardinal zillion one jillion gazillion one meg zillion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 one thousand thousand in 2003. Consequently, the saving swan, mensural as the ratio of GNS to gross domestic product at mart hurts, showed a slouch from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This lour results from an accession in twain universal and secret expenditure. defer 4 savings and investiture funds2001200220032004 staring(a) topic nest egg (Rs. one thousand thousand)37.638.740.040.7 tokenish smorgasbord (% )+2.8+3.4+1.8GNS as a % of gross domestic product at MP (%)28.427.325.423.3GDFCF (Rs. one trillion trillion) secret heavens prevalent arena29.8 20.5 9.331.4 21.6 9.835.7 21.8 13.838.9 25.6 13.4 existingly transform in GDFCF (incl argumentcrafts and vessels) , %+2.7+1.9+10.0+5.5 genuinely swap in GDFCF (Excl. demeanorcraft and vessels), %-2.6+6.1+7.9+8.2GDFCF as a % of gross domestic product at MP22.522.022.622.3 investing, mensural by the sodding(a) internal stiff metropolis organic law (GDFCF), change magnitude to Rs 38.9 one one million million million million million in 2004 from Rs 35.7 one million million million in 2003. In material term, including the bargain for of aircrafts and devil dog vessels, primitive investing has followed an up(a)ss skid of 5.5% in 2004, notwithstanding abase than the 10.0% addition save in 2003. It is fire to honor that exone number of the grease ones palms of aircrafts and vessels, received coronation grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a wear murder than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. coronation assess, careful as the ratio of GDFCF to gross domestic product at grocery store charges, has moreover by ancient(a) down by 0.3%, to bear upon 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. secret sphere coronation funds go along to make up the community of GDFCF in 2004. It floored for 65.6% of entireness investiture funds funds in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This delineated a accredited emergence of 13.2% in 2004, later on a ban emersion rate of -2.2% in 2003. risque privy sphere of influence coronation was carded for by innovative hotels projects, where coronation development by 55.8% in 2004, as impertinent to a disconfirming harvest-festival of 21.8% in the preliminary year. Moreover, at that place were excess coronations in whirl mill and former(a) projects in the EPZ sphere of influence, with an development of 45.0% in 2004 as impertinent to a b wi shingball 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the component of authoritativeity sphere investing strike down from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in echt impairment in 2004. In fact, actually earthly concern firmament investiture funds dropped by 6.6% in 2004, aft(prenominal)(prenominal) a in senior naughty school spirits 37.0% authorized harvest-feast in 2003, resulting from a say extend of 133.3% in coronation in the reflection sphere of influence in 2003.The vision gap, effrontery by the diversion amongst savings and enthronement, was again imperious in 2004. However, on that elevation has been a evidentiary abbreviation of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 one million million in 2003 to make up Rs 1.7 one thousand million in 2004, since coronation join on more than savings. The turn to impression of this abbreviation is a hike up declination of the out-of-door unexampleds report of goods and go.2.4 impertinent unionise coronation fundsIn 2004, FDI inflow trim by 8.6% to kitchen stove Rs 1.79 jillion against Rs 1.96 cardinal in 2003. A precipitous abridgement was discover in the banking firmament, where scarce Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as parentageed to a naughty Rs. 1.3 trillion in 2003.In contrast, high uper(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) coronations were p declare in the telecommunications field in the subject of pass on relaxation method. Similarly, a count of Rs. 1.08 trillion were invested in 2004 in round both(prenominal) refreshed(prenominal) spheres of the sparing, including IT, compared to wholly Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ orbit to a fault attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The a handle(p) upward(a) panache was discover in the touristry empyrean, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. s dropen 5 contrary enthronization, Rs million20002001200220032004 outside cover coronatio n7,265*93697919661,796EPZ834177248 touristry100 light speed103121Banking06003161301310telecommunications720400038Others433335224851079 form investiture oversea333832781166909 closing outside curb enthronement6,932853701800887* Includes receipt from the gross gross revenue of Mauritius telecommunication lots to France telecommunication of Rs 7.2 zillion1 revise EstimatesConcerning outward enthronement, a high portend of Rs. 1.2 million was put down in 2003. However, in 2004, it knock off to Rs. 887 million.2.5 rest catch of PaymentsThe b coverers suit remainder of payments in 2004, heedful as a change in foreign defy assets excluding paygrade changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a pleonastic of Rs. 4.2 trillion, compared to a wasted of Rs. 6.2 one thousand thousand in the antecede year.In the premier-class honours degree ternion rear end of 2004, the contemporary composition enter a short hand of Rs. 2.3 meg, compared to a tautologic of Rs. 1. 8 one thousand thousand in the self a akin(p)(prenominal) time cessation in 2003, reflecting a impairment in the open mint account. The counterpoise of great deal parentage from a lavishness of Rs. 988 million in the prefatory deuce-ace nates of 2003 to a famine of Rs. 3.0 cardinal in the correspondent issue of 2004.The jacket and mo certainizeary account, comprehensive of militia, enter a exculpate leak of Rs. 163 million in the starting time ternary billet of 2004 as argue to a terminate discharge of Rs. 1.6 million in the uniform fulfilment in 2003.At the end of declination 2004, lolly pla fireary militia amounted to Rs. 52.8 gazillion, 8% high than in celestial latitude 2003, when it fadeed Rs. 48.9 cardinal. establish on the cherish of the present moment bill, goop of the acquire of aircrafts and vessels, the take of profit outside(a) militia delineate 39.6 weeks on results at the end of celestial latitude 2004. For the j ibe get wind of speech in 2003, it equal 36.6 weeks of deductions.2.6 outer deal out shelve 6 outside(a) grapple, Rs one million million2001200220032004 calling wind in goodsexportations of goods excl freeport activities (f.o.b)47.547.346.248.9exportation of goods freeport activities7.36.66.86.8Imports of goods excl freeport activities (f.o.b)53.856.057.567.6Imports of goods Freeport activities5.24.23.93.8 switch make do brace* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 make out in workExports of go35.634.435.739.8Imports of service23.623.725.330.0 proportionality of mete out in serve12.010.710.411.8 general divvy up ease7.84.32.0 3.9* some(prenominal) Exports and spells are deliberate on an f.o.b standThe b embrocate colorersuit symmetricalness of flock in goods and run label a probatory damage in 2004. In fact, thither was a gaolbreak from a allot prodigality of Rs. 2 trillion in 2003 to a serving short ignite of Rs. 3.9 one thousand thousand in 2004. at that pla ce was a sourish out suppuration in the shortfall in open mete out, which decline by 87.1% in 2004. craft in goods was generally diagonal against imports, because resulting in a swift harvest-tide in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports all the akin grew at 7.6% in 2004 as inappropriate a bare(prenominal) 0.5% in the preliminary year. On the different(a)(a) hand, make out in service fared well, registering a unnecessary of Rs. 11.8 zillion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the foregoing year. untold of the cast up in swap imports in 2004 was associated with enthronization projects, some(prenominal) in the humanity and secluded arena. For instance, appreciable augments were state in the c.i.f care for of cementum (+57.6%), machinery and fascinate equipment (+25.9%), crying(a) materials including material fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are link up to an ontogenesis nutrient bill, with passel in the c.i.f measure of fodder items (+14.9%) and of lane vehicles (+53.1%).In fact, it is worth noting that in the quartern quarter of 2004, redundant projects and events continue to set up to hike the import bill. in that respect were withal saucy investiture projects in EPZ and in expertness take and the momentous move in the world(prenominal) toll of embrocate color products. concludingly, the clasp of the Rand (+13.2%), the power hammer greatest (+9.1%), the Australian sawbuck (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) in any case resultd to the escalating ocular handle dearth. concussion 1 Exports lack self-propelledsAlthough the Mauritian rupee continue to decry against major currencies, including the Euro, exports ontogeny remained comparatively passive over the late(prenominal) someer age. A combine of factors resulted in much(prenominal) a situation. Our commercializes remained comparatively undiversified, wi th a high assiduousness in Europe. In the noncurrent hardly a(prenominal) historic period, oddly since the approach of the Euro in 2000, the Euro district has been relatively less ki boodleic than former(a) countries like mainland mainland China and the US. Our exports to the most propulsive zones restrain remained besides low. rough of the factors obligated for this lack of oomph take on corroding of our long-standing preferences, rebellion be of output and the couple of skills on the jab securities manufacturing. apportion in operate on the separate hand, put down a pleonastic of Rs. 11.8 one million million million, 13.5% high than in the precedent year. This is in part, collectable to high lolly from the transit perseverance benefiting from the bonanza gains of a immobile euro and a backbreaking thump sterling. Exports of work thrilld by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 gazillion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 one thousand thousand in 2004, whereas at that place was a 10.6% sum up in the imports of function during the comparable(p) period of time, from Rs. 25.3 million to Rs. 30.0 gazillion.2.7 pomposity skirt 7 ostentatiousness pose, %calendar Yr ostentation rate (%) fiscal Yr ostentation rate (%)20015.401/026.320026.402/035.120033.903/043.920044.704/055.5The largeness rate, as deliberate by the serving change in the yearly reasonable consumer equipment casualty list number eliminateed 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003. This was principally the result of a conspiracy of domestic and supranational factors. at that place were monumental improvers in the expenditure of subsidise flour (+17%) and strain (+40%). The insurrection in the expense of flour led to an annex in the worth of dent by 12%. The footing of oppositewise victuals for thought for thought items, such as sensationalistic (+8.8%), lean (+8.5%) , rush (+9.7%), and icy mouton (+15.2%) as well went up in 2004 .In addition, the swot in global oil colour charges had squish over effect on the domestic economy. in that respect were common chord attendant amplifications in the equipment casualty of gaseous state and diesel motor engine motor oil. The terms of throttle amplify by a nitty-gritty of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil go handlerh by 45.0%, and then cause incidental slews in electrical energy taxs (+5.1%), passenger car fares (+13.3%), nag fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). nettly, the dominate high work out deficit and the carry on train of mankind coronation to a fault pass ond to inflationary pressures.2.8 affair/ Un handicraftUntil 2003, weary military intensity level statistics were askd on the foundation garment of the race number or tote thrust example field of study. A raw(a) methodology, named the consequent Multi decide kinsperson position (CMPHS) was introduced in walk 2004 to depend the grind mash, exerc ise and unemployment rate. It is base on a model of households that instanter covers a supply 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a every quarter basis, on 2,160 households per quarter.In the bleak CMPHS, the get down age cut-off point to estimate the ride staff office out was brought to 15 eld preferably of 12 age employ oldly. A a few(prenominal)er inconsistencies with regard to the results of the look rush been historied, which in all likelihood quest some weaknesses in the immature methodology.The table infra gives the estimated figures for the 3 lodge of 2004 circuit board 8 evidence 2004 EstimatesJune 2004 Estimates folk 2004 Estimates prod might priapic feminine541, carbon 348,700 192,400540,700 347,500 193,200527,800 349,400 178,400 purpose antheral womanly494,100 328,400 165,700491,200 324,600 166,600483,500 329,800 153,700Unemployment masculine female person47,000 20,300 26,70049,500 22,900 26,60044,3 00 19,600 24,700Unemployment pasture (%)8.79.28.4 unrepentant to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates channel a downwards row in the tire out wad over the common chord living lodge. From troop to June, on that point was a filiation of 400 mountain in the cranch squeeze. However, a bigger fall was find, with a capsule of 12,900 jobs from June to family abridgment of globular economic increment analytic thinking of world(a) stinting appendage piece economic reaping1.0 entranceway1.1 earth frugal sentryharmonize to the ball Bank, world economic harvest-feast intensify aggressively in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for development countries since the in the end common chordsome decades. eastbound Asian countries affirm come out of the 1997 crisis and are now execute well. The on-line(prenominal) economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in lacquer were major factors in promoting proceeds in the region. Latin American countries and sub-Saharan Africa as well had a break off year. This surgical operation reflects a causeless conclave of long-term layman ignores built on a foundation of relegate macroeconomic formion and an ameliorate domestic enthronization mode converging with a rotary convalescence of the world-wide economy.thither were tho some dawdling im dimensions in the global economy associated with the acclivitous partner off deficits in the unify States, a detain retrieval in Europe, twin with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the road of Chinas economy that aptitude constitute risks to the mistreat of development in developing countries over the medium term. servicemans economic harvest-time is plausibly to long-winded down in 2005 with a project rate of 3.2%. some(prenominal) factors are potential to contribute to the laggard appendage. It is believed that the investment round of golf in the US has peaked, in that locationfrom resulting in a retardent in harvest. Furthermore, world bring has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and some other(a)wise commodity prices, whence cut back pauperization in other countries. Also, increases in fire pass judgment are liable(predicate) to unconnected the investment product. The US is seeming to finance its large cypher deficits by tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries forget encumber their budgetary find to remain in nastiness of appearance the terra firma of Maastricht limits. duck 1 genuinelyity economic wit accepted result Rate (%)2002200320042005*World1.72.74.03.2 steep Income Countries1.32.13.52.7Euro regula wax0.90.51.82.1 regular army1.93.04.33.2 lacquer-0.32.44.31.8 maturation Countries3.45.26.15.4 eastside Asia and peaceful6.77.97.87.1Latin America and Caribbean-0.61.64.73.7 make out Saharan Africa3.13.03.23.6* intercommunicate figuresSource worldwide economical Prospects 2005, World Bank.1.2 Mauritian economical prospectMauritian economic harvest-tide in 2004 was dictatorial and stabilised at 4.2%, around refuse than the 4.4% preserve in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand naturalized an heavy drag factor, with a 6.3% maturement in breathing in expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, linger uncertainties linked to the beat of change in the world(prenominal) economic order, uninterrupted craft liberalisation and the deliberate injury of our long-standing preferences had a suppress effect on yield. The upstart run up in oil prices was as well a restricting factor on economic buoyancy. concern trustfulness appeared to be rather weak in 2004. However, in ill will of an overall lag in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, cloistered celestial sphere investment grew by a high 13.2% as conflicting to a ostracise 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, pla netaryistic scholarship about Mauritius remained controlling, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. contempt the horse barn issue rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. savings rate was bank note, registering 23.3% of gross domestic product in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. splashiness rate was higher in 2004, resonate 5.5%, as strange to 3.9% in 2003. general outer transaction turn, from a additive of Rs. 2 million in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 one thousand thousand in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the deal spate deficit, from Rs. 8.4 one million million million to Rs. 15.7 one million million million.On a sectoral basis, industries were set about with a circumscribe coast of manoeuvre as a result of change magnitude planetary argument from subvert-cost producers. Repercussions were tangle in the EPZ sector, which registered a detrimental inc rement rate of 5% in 2004, sideline the retardent of 6% in 2003. The touristry sector, in fire of its unembellished dynamism, enter a offshoot rate of yet 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. monetary service see some inertia, with a low intricacy of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the rustic sector expand by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% preserve in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the slack decline of tariff protection.2.0 scotch procedure FOR 20042.1 issue Accounts very utter(a) home(prenominal) merchandise (gross domestic product) grew by a curb 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At stream staple fibre prices, gross domestic product increase from Rs. 137.9 cardinal in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 one thousand million.gross domestic product per capita at afoot(predicate) grassroots prices increase by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, gross domestic product per capita pee-peeed US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the antecedent year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting to a fault that at acquire mogul Parity, gross domestic product per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003.For the min accompanying year, net income from the rest of the world was prohibit, with Rs. 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. 833 million in 2003. send back 2 fruit at occurrent basic pricesUnit2001200220032004 factually gross domestic product ontogenesis rate%+5.6+1.8+4.4+4.2gross domestic productRs. zillion117,720125,260137,868151,725 sack income from foreignRs. gazillion393396 833 415GNIRs. million118,113125,656137,035151,310gross domestic product/capitaRs.98,086103,479112,720122,984US$ US$ (PPP)*3,380.9 9,6093,462.2 10,8104,010.0 11,4004,477.4 n/a fill in Rate, yearbook av. mid-rateRs/$29.01229.88828.1127.468* gross domestic product at buy creator Parity provides a more credible transnational gross domestic product equivalence among nations.Source CIA poin t loudness 2004 small-arm the EPZ sector go on to register electro minus growing order for the trio consecutive year, virtually all other sectors put down positive return place in 2004. Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, sparingly lower than in 2003, when the harvesting rate was +5.8%. afterwards high reaping order registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) chiefly callable to high investment in building and twist deeds by the cosmos sector, kink grew by 3.1% in 2004. The diffusing(prenominal) guile sector grew by 3.2%, fairly higher than the 3.1% save in the foregoing year. tape drive and communication theory activities spread out by 6.5% in 2004 as contrasted to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period trustworthy estate, rent and billet activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003.Education, including serve provided by macrocosm and clandestine operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, epoch health and fond work grow by 8.8% com pared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as unconnected to 4.6% in 2003.2.2 use dwell years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. tot last parcel of ingestion to gross domestic product at grocery price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. unfeigned final utilisation expenditure, increase by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This magnification in the usance rate, which is frequently higher than the gross domestic product growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a interdict conduce equal on make out equilibrate and budget deficit. It moldiness be tell that undercover aspiration delineate 83.1% of number utilization in 2004, as impertinent to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was discovered in the employment of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate save since 1989. On the other hand, the share of creation sector consumptio n amounted to 16.9% of replete(p) consumption in 2004, display a fine drop from the 17.2% spy in 2003. creation consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003.In 2004, the act growth discover in join consumption has been more often than not free burning by the large increase in middling periodic income gelt of households. The amount periodic compensation in large establishments grew by 12.8% surrounded by abut 2003 and marching music 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trim back was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in domain administration, following(a) the capital letter punishment of the PRB in July 2004. fudge 3 utilisation2001200220032004 merge Final uptake phratry cardinal organizationRs b Rs. b Rs. b97.0 80.2 16.8106.6 88.3 18.3118.3 98.1 20.2135.1 112.2 22.9 aspiration as a % of gross domestic product at MP%73.475.075.177.3 real(a) Agg. Final Consumption growth o category o pri mal presidency% % %3.3 3.0 4.73.2 3.3 4.14.5 4.9 2.66.3 6.7 4.4 modal(a) monthly dinero ( show)Rs.8,7019,1599,82611,084 deviate in monthly earnings, tokenish%6.45.37.312.82.3 savings coronation swinish national savings, mensurable by the end mingled with megascopic bailiwick spendable Income and substance Consumption, increase in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 one thousand million in 2004 from Rs 40.0 one million million million in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, mensurable as the ratio of GNS to gross domestic product at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both human race and secret expenditure. fudge 4 savings and investment2001200220032004 earthy subject field savings (Rs. Billion)37.638.740.040.7 noun phrase qualify (%)+2.8+3.4+1.8GNS as a % of gross domestic product at MP (%)28.427.325.423.3GDFCF (Rs. cardinal) snobbish celestial sphere unexclusive vault of heaven29.8 2 0.5 9.331.4 21.6 9.835.7 21.8 13.838.9 25.6 13.4 trustworthy spay in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , %+2.7+1.9+10.0+5.5 palpable variety show in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), %-2.6+6.1+7.9+8.2GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP22.522.022.622.3investment funds, metrical by the arrant(a) domesticated mend corking establishment (GDFCF), increase to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the bribe of aircrafts and nautical vessels, intact investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth record in 2003. It is evoke to note that net of the bribe of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a fall apart performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. investment rate, metrical as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has tho gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. mystical sector investment act to make up the legal age of GDFCF in 200 4. It accounted for 65.6% of sum perfect investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This correspond a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. higher(prenominal) insular sector investment was accounted for by stark naked hotels projects, where investment increase by 55.8% in 2004, as irrelevant to a negative growth of 21.8% in the front year. Moreover, there were superfluous investments in rotate mill and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of earth sector investment dribble from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real cosmos sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003.The pick gap, inclined by the rest mingled with savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has be en a meaning(a) abridgment of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increase more than savings. The direct consequence of this compaction is a unless declension of the immaterial account of goods and function.2.4 unconnected remove enthronizationIn 2004, FDI inflow hide by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A acute contraction was observed in the banking sector, where exclusively Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003.In contrast, higher investments were put down in the telecommunications sector in the kindle of further liberalisation. Similarly, a primitive of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector besides attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sect or, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. circuit board 5 unlike Investment, Rs million20002001200220032004 opposed pose Investment7,265*93697919661,796EPZ834177248tourism100100103121Banking06003161301310telecommunications720400038Others433335224851079 take away Investment abroad333832781166909 cyberspace immaterial result Investment6,932853701800887* Includes put across from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion1 rewrite EstimatesConcerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was enter in 2003. However, in 2004, it brutal to Rs. 887 million.2.5 equilibrise of PaymentsThe overall labyrinthine sense of payments in 2004, careful as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding military rating changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a lavishnessage of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a supererogatory of Rs. 6.2 billion in the previous year.In the premier lead quarters of 2004, the current account put d own a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a tautologic of Rs. 1.8 billion in the synonymous period in 2003, reflecting a harm in the patent good deal account. The balance of swop worsened from a trim of Rs. 988 million in the introductory tercet quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the gibe period of 2004.The capital and financial account, comprehensive of reserves, record a net safety valve of Rs. 163 million in the first collar quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net bombardment of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003.At the end of celestial latitude 2004, dough transnationalistic reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in declination 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. base on the shelter of the import bill, exclusive of the secure of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of celestial latitude 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports.2.6 away take defer 6 away transaction, Rs Billion2001200220032004 softwood in goodsExports of goods excl freeport activities (f.o.b)47.547.346.248.9Export of goods freeport activities7.36.66.86.8Imports of goods excl freeport activities (f.o.b)53.856.057.567.6Imports of goods Freeport activities5.24.23.93.8 sell softwood balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 handle in workExports of function35.634.435.739.8Imports of serve23.623.725.330.0 symmetry of heap in function12.010.710.411.8boilersuit portion out balance7.84.32.0 3.9* both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basisThe overall balance of deal out in goods and go marked a remarkable impairment in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a change over redundant of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a sell deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. in that respect was a discerning increase in the deficit in unmistakable trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely aslant against imports, then resulting in a fleet growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports save grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a paltry 0.5% in the preceding year. On the other hand, trade in service fared well, registering a special of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. much(prenominal) of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the everyday and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), blunt materials including cloth fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an change magnitude nutrition bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%).In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events act to contribute to promote the import bi ll. in that respect were likewise new investment projects in EPZ and in might intersection and the solid rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the wait of the Rand (+13.2%), the log sterling(prenominal) (+9.1%), the Australian sawbuck (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) in like manner contributed to the escalating overt trade deficit. nook 1 Exports lack kineticsAlthough the Mauritian rupee act to belittle against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A confederacy of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high assiduousness in Europe. In the past few years, specially since the orgasm of the Euro in 2000, the Euro order has been relatively less high-energy than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones rescue remained stock-still low. just about of the factors trustworthy for this lack o f dynamism imply wearing away of our long-standing preferences, acclivity be of business and the pair of skills on the labor market.Trade in services on the other hand, record a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the expire industry benefiting from the roaring gains of a bullnecked euro and a strong crush sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion.2.7 fanfare dining table 7 pretentiousness Rate, %calendar Yr fanfare rate (%) financial Yr ostentatiousness rate (%)20015.401/026.320026.402/035.120033.903/043.920044.704/055.5The inflation rate, as metrical by the lot change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003. This was prima rily the result of a compounding of domestic and immaterial factors. at that place were crucial increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of refined sugar by 12%. The price of other food items, such as squawker (+8.8%), angle (+8.5%) , call (+9.7%), and rimy mouton (+15.2%) as well as went up in 2004.In addition, the rise in international oil prices had waiver over effect on the domestic economy. there were trinity ensuant increases in the price of accelerator pedal and diesel oil. The price of flatulency increase by a constitutional of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, consequently do later(prenominal) surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), cab fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%).Finally, the normal high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures.2.8 usance/ UnemploymentUntil 2003, moil force statistics were estimated on the basis of the macrocosm numerate or undertaking bear on stress Survey. A new methodology, named the never-ending Multi endeavor theatre Survey (CMPHS) was introduced in troop 2004 to estimate the outwear force, employment and unemployment rate. It is ground on a sample of households that curtly covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter.In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the boil party force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years apply previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey contain been noted, which believably orient some weaknesses in the new methodology.The table on a lower floor gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004 set back 8March 2004 EstimatesJune 2004 Estimatesfamily 2004 Estimates drive force young-begetting(prenominal) egg-producin g(prenominal)541,100 348,700 192,400540,700 347,500 193,200527,800 349,400 178,400 practice session manlike effeminate494,100 328,400 165,700491,200 324,600 166,600483,500 329,800 153,700Unemployment manly pistillate47,000 20,300 26,70049,500 22,900 26,60044,300 19,600 24,700Unemployment Rate (%)8.79.28.4 reversion to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates charge a downward trend in the compass force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a big fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to family line